In the previous article on Sports Trading Network by the highly respected Joseph Buchdahl Do Steamers Provide an Edge? Analysis from the English 1×2 Football Betting Market, he concluded that Steam prices relative to closing lines are indeed a losing cause much more if value betting against the public or drifted price. Other price moves can usually be considered as normal odds movements, price calibration, or line shading in lower betting limits of a particular sportsbook.Ĭhasing Steam is a futile effort in the long-run, all bets are roughly 50/50 plus the ‘vig’ or commissions charged and you’ll get a negative Expected Value. Technically, a steam move can be considered as a move of greater than 5% of previous odds and occurred in a 12 hour period. It is fundamentally a shaped public opinion that makes the risk of a sportsbook very heavy on one side. It is an aggregate result of smart players’ trades, one sided bets from ‘the public’ and/or substantial bets from betting groups and syndicates. Steam Movement is defined as a fast and strong line movement in the majority of books.
